Sumber :
Kontan Mingguan, Maret 2012
Rabu, 23 Januari 2013
Indonesia Earnings Growth Spurs World’s Priciest Stocks as BRICs Retreat
In a year when stocks around the
world are getting cheaper, Indonesian shares are growing more
expensive as surging profits lure Asia’s biggest investors.
The Jakarta Composite Index’s 11 percent advance this year
lifted its valuation to 15 times estimated profit, the highest
level among 45 benchmark stock gauges tracked by Bloomberg and a
record 36 percent premium to the MSCI All-Country World Index.
Price-earnings ratios fell in every other market, declining by
an average 15 percent, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The
index dropped 0.4 percent to 4,122.086 as of yesterday’s close.
An PT Indofood Sukses Makmur
employee monitors instant noodles along the production line at the
company's instant noodle factory in Cibitung, Indonesia. Indofood has
boosted earnings by an average 48 percent during the past four years and
topped analysts’ projections for eight straight quarters, data compiled
by Bloomberg show. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg
Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Mark
Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging
markets group, talks about the outlook for global stocks and his
investment strategy.
More than $4.4 trillion have been wiped out from equity market
values worldwide amid a sell-off that drove the MSCI All-Country World
Index down more than 10 percent from this year’s high into a so-called
correction. Mobius speaks from Tokyo with John Dawson on Bloomberg
Television's "On the Move Asia." (Source: Bloomberg)
Amundi Asset Management, Bank Julius Baer & Co. and Baring
Asset Management, which oversee more than $1 trillion, say
premium valuations in Jakarta are justified at a time when debt
crises threaten growth in the U.S. and Europe and the biggest
emerging nations lift interest rates to curb consumer prices.
Indonesia is among the top countries in Templeton Asset
Management’s investment list, Mark Mobius, executive chairman of
Templeton’s emerging markets group, said in a Bloomberg
Television interview today.
Indonesia’s inflation has dropped for six months, the
government says economic growth may accelerate to 7 percent next
year and analysts forecast profits will rise at twice the pace
of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Indonesian stocks are “expensive for the right reason,”
Khiem Do, the Hong Kong-based head of multi-asset strategy at
Baring Asset Management, said by phone on Aug. 4. “It still has
very healthy growth.” His firm oversees about $10 billion and
has “overweight” holdings in Indonesia.
Economic Growth
The $706 billion economy, the eighth-largest among emerging
markets, has expanded twice as fast as global output since 2008
amid buoyant Chinese demand for energy exports and a boom in
consumer spending that boosted earnings at companies from
Jakarta-based PT Indofood Sukses Makmur to PT Gudang Garam, a
Kediri-based cigarette maker.
Indonesia’s expanded 6.49 percent in the three months
through June from a year earlier, the Central Bureau of
Statistics said in Jakarta today. That compares with the revised
6.47 percent gain in the previous quarter.
Faster growth and lower inflation spurred Standard & Poor’s
and Fitch Ratings to say this year they may give President
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s government an investment grade credit
grade for the first time since the Asian financial crisis in
1997.
Rate Outlook
Bank Indonesia has kept benchmark borrowing costs steady
since February at 6.75 percent, or 25 basis points above a
record low, as inflation declined to 4.6 percent in July from 7
percent six months earlier. India and Brazil both lifted
interest rates five times this year and China raised rates three
times.
The Indonesian government forecast on July 5 that the
economy may grow as much as 7 percent in 2012, up from a
previous estimate of 6.9 percent. The economy probably grew at a
6.5 percent rate in the second quarter, according to the median
estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the
government’s scheduled report today. Indonesia expanded 6.1
percent last year, compared with 10.3 percent growth in China
and 10.4 percent in India, International Monetary Fund data show.
Indonesia “is a secular growth story for years to come,”
Timothy Teo, a Singapore-based money manager at Amundi, which
oversees about $980 billion, wrote in a July 20 e-mail.
“Interest rates are low by historical standards and that is
driving consumption” for the country’s 245 million people, said
Teo, who predicts stock valuations may climb to as high as 20
times earnings. Indonesia is Asia’s third-most populous nation
after China and India.
Record High
Indonesian companies are taking out more loans to invest in
the nation’s growth. Syndicated loans in Southeast Asia’s
biggest nation total $8.5 billion since January, a 60 percent
jump from the same period in 2010, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
The Jakarta Composite index (JCI) hit a record high of 4,193.44
on Aug. 1, as Indonesia’s stock market value climbed to $445
billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Shanghai
Composite Index, the benchmark measure for China’s $3.8 trillion
equity market, has declined 4.4 percent this year and is 56
percent below its October 2007 peak. The MSCI All-Country World
Index has slipped 5 percent since the end of December, including
an 8.9 percent tumble during the past week on concern the U.S.
economy may fall back into recession.
Valuations
Indonesia’s local currency bonds handed investors a gain of
11 percent this year, the best performance among 10 regional
markets, according to indexes compiled by HSBC Holdings Plc. The
rupiah has appreciated 5.8 percent in 2011, the second-best
performance among Asia’s ten most-traded currencies.
The Indonesian stock benchmark’s price-earnings ratio has
increased to 15 from 13.9 at the start of the year. Its 36
percent premium over the MSCI All-Country index compares with an
average discount of 1 percent since January 2006, according to
data compiled by Bloomberg. The Jakarta gauge traded this week
at 3.3 times book value, or assets minus liabilities, the
highest level worldwide and a record 92 percent more than the
global index.
Profits at the 334 companies in the Jakarta gauge that
posted second-quarter results so far climbed 32 percent, beating
analysts’ forecasts by an average 4 percent, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with 24 percent profit
growth in the MSCI BRIC Index of shares in Brazil, Russia, India
and China, which was 3.6 percent below estimates.
Higher Earnings
Earnings in Indonesia may jump 28 percent in the next 12
months, more than double the 13 percent growth forecast for the
MSCI BRIC index, more than 950 analysts’ forecasts show.
The increase in valuations may leave Indonesian share
prices vulnerable to declines should rising oil prices reignite
inflation and strain public finances, said Alan Richardson, who
helps oversee about $82 billion as a money manager at Samsung
Asset Management.
The government lifted its 2011 crude price estimate to $95
a barrel from $80 a barrel and raised its projected fuel subsidy
to 129.7 trillion rupiah from about 96 trillion rupiah on July
22. Fuel and electricity subsidies represent about 14.7 percent
of the total government budget, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Crude oil has climbed 16 percent this year to $110 a barrel in
London as uprisings in North Africa cut output.
“Once you get a shock like inflation being higher than
expected by a large amount, then all bets are off again,”
Richardson said in an interview. “The market is not priced for
any disappointment.”
‘Off the Table’
Monetary policy in China may cut demand for Indonesian
exports such as thermal coal and palm oil. The world’s second-
biggest economy is Indonesia’s third-largest market after Japan
and the European Union, according to the World Trade
Organization.
“It probably makes sense to take some money off the
table,” Binay Chandgothia, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at
Principal Global Investors, which oversees more than $200
billion, said in a phone interview. “Valuations are a bit of a
concern.”
Price-earnings ratios in Indonesia are still below their
peak. The Jakarta gauge traded at 16.6 times 12-month profit
estimates in November 2007 and reached 3.8 times book value in
December 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
“It is already expensive, but the potential for it to rise
further is still there,” Ruben Sukatendel, who helps manage theequivalent of $459 million at PT BNI Securities in Jakarta, said
in July 20 phone interview.
Domestic Markets
Growing local demand will provide a cushion against the
global economic slowdown, said Terence Tan, a Singapore-based
head of market specialists in Asia at RBS Coutts Bank Ltd.
Domestic consumption accounts for about 56 percent of
Indonesia’s economy and retail sales growth has averaged 17
percent this year.
More than sixty-six percent of Indonesians are between 15
and 64, and the working-age population may grow by about 20
percent over the next two decades, according to HSBC. The
increasing labor force, along with wages about 66 percent below
the level in China, may lure global manufacturers, the London-
based bank wrote in a July 29 report.
“There is recognition that Indonesia has a sizeable
domestic-driven market that should insulate it from some of the
global macro concerns,” RBS’s Tan wrote in a July 20 e-mail.
PT Adaro Energy, a Jakarta-based coal producer, is poised
to benefit from Indonesia’s expansion, Kim Kwie Sjamsudin, an
analyst at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a report last month. Adaro
said on July 29 that second-quarter production rose 19 percent,
while sales surged 27 percent to a record. Sjamsudin’s share-
price estimate of 3,850 rupiah is 48 percent higher than
yesterday’s closing level.
Gudang Garam
Julius Baer’s Mark Matthews recommends shares of Indofood,
the nation’s biggest maker of instant noodles, and Gudang Garam.
Indofood has boosted earnings by an average 48 percent during
the past four years and topped analysts’ projections for eight
straight quarters, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The stock is trading at 15.3 times next year’s profit
estimates after rallying 33 percent this year. That compares
with 23 times for regional peers, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
Gudang Garam’s first-half net income rose 29 percent from a
year earlier. Earnings are poised to grow 20 percent this year,
more than six times faster than global tobacco companies,
analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. The stock is
valued at 18 times 2012 earnings forecasts after climbing 32
percent this year.
Investors are “focused on earnings growth,” said Matthews,
the Singapore-based head of research for Asia at Bank Julius
Baer, which manages about $205 billion. “Where else can you get
this kind of growth without serious inflation?”
To contact the reporter on this story:
Michael Patterson in London at
mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;
Weiyi Lim in Singapore at
wlim26@bloomberg.net;
Yudith Ho in Singapore at
yho29@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Gavin Serkin at
gserkin@bloomberg.net;
Darren Boey at
dboey@bloomberg.net.
Source:
Bloomberg, Aug 05, 2011
Bumi Director Says Firm Is Undervalued
Bumi Resources, Asia’s largest exporter of thermal coal, is undervalued,
a director at the company said, following a recent slide in its share
price that last week left it at its lowest since March 2009.
“I’d think we are at least five times undervalued at today’s levels by any yardstick and as we increase output and reduce costs,” Bumi director Dileep Srivastava wrote in an e-mail on Monday.
This year, shares of Bumi, the nation’s biggest coal producer by volume, have fallen 68 percent, making it the second-biggest loser in the 449 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). It dropped 4.1 percent to Rp 700 on Monday.
Bumi trades at 9.1 times this year’s estimated earnings, compared with a multiple of 15 for the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, accor ding to Bloomberg data.
Some analysts warn that the drop in stock price may make it cheap but there are other concerns. Ruben Sukatendel, who helps manage Rp 6 trillion ($626 million) in assets at BNI Asset Management, said the large debt in the group was unappealing, especially long-term, unless the company can settle its debts.
Dileep denied that the company was facing difficulties.
“I’d say a combination of adverse economic conditions and undue speculation impacts stock price. Most stories about us are unreal,” he said. “Our first-half 2012 financials demonstrate our desire to achieve the highest standards of transparency, adhere to international accounting principles, strengthen our balance sheet and address earlier capitalized expenses.”
Dileep said the company is “engaged in reducing interest costs by seeking cheaper refinancing” and monetizing its non-core assets “for cash to repay company debt.”
Bumi’s debt is estimated at $3.95 billion, including outstanding bonds and convertible bonds, debts to several major lenders, some of which are in China.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 08 Agustus 2011
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/bumi-director-says-firm-is-undervalued/543633
“I’d think we are at least five times undervalued at today’s levels by any yardstick and as we increase output and reduce costs,” Bumi director Dileep Srivastava wrote in an e-mail on Monday.
This year, shares of Bumi, the nation’s biggest coal producer by volume, have fallen 68 percent, making it the second-biggest loser in the 449 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). It dropped 4.1 percent to Rp 700 on Monday.
Bumi trades at 9.1 times this year’s estimated earnings, compared with a multiple of 15 for the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index, accor ding to Bloomberg data.
Some analysts warn that the drop in stock price may make it cheap but there are other concerns. Ruben Sukatendel, who helps manage Rp 6 trillion ($626 million) in assets at BNI Asset Management, said the large debt in the group was unappealing, especially long-term, unless the company can settle its debts.
Dileep denied that the company was facing difficulties.
“I’d say a combination of adverse economic conditions and undue speculation impacts stock price. Most stories about us are unreal,” he said. “Our first-half 2012 financials demonstrate our desire to achieve the highest standards of transparency, adhere to international accounting principles, strengthen our balance sheet and address earlier capitalized expenses.”
Dileep said the company is “engaged in reducing interest costs by seeking cheaper refinancing” and monetizing its non-core assets “for cash to repay company debt.”
Bumi’s debt is estimated at $3.95 billion, including outstanding bonds and convertible bonds, debts to several major lenders, some of which are in China.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 08 Agustus 2011
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/bumi-director-says-firm-is-undervalued/543633
Bumi at 3-Year Lows but Stock Not Cheap: Analysts
Investors should remain cautious in trading shares of Bumi Resources and
other Bakrie-related companies even as valuations drop, on concern that
mounting debt can always trigger another stock price decline, extending
losses of the past few weeks, some analysts say.
Bumi Resources has fallen 22 percent in the past two weeks and traded last week at the lowest since March 2009. Before that the stock had been declining as its debt rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency. Both had cut Bumi’s rating on concern that its declining revenue from coal sales and increasing production cost will affect its ability to pay debt. Two weeks ago it posted a first-half net loss on higher operating costs
So far this year shares of Bumi, the biggest coal producer in Indonesia by volume, have lost 66 percent to close on Friday at Rp 730 per share, making it the second-biggest loser among 449 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and underperforming the mining index’s 25 percent decline, according to Bloomberg data.
Being down so much this year may make the stock a bargain for some investors, but analysts warn that cheap valuation should not be the only consideration.
“I prefer to enter when Bumi hits below Rp 600 per share,” said Edwin Sebayan, head of research at MNC Securities in Jakarta. “We are still having a pessimistic view on the stock’s valuation with Rp 520 as the target price [this year],” he said.
Edwin set Rp 740 for Bumi as an optimistic price target. Bloomberg data show that Bumi’s estimated price-to-earnings ratio is 9.5 for this year. By comparison the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index has a multiple of 15.
Edwin said Bumi’s financial condition is still far from safe for investors to bet on the company. According to Edwin, with the $334 million net loss in the first half, compared to $227 million profit on the same period last year, its debt-to-equity ratio has risen, to 8.9.
The company’s cash position at $121.85 million is too small when the company, according to his calculation, has about Rp 3.1 trillion ($323 million) in principal payments on its debt maturing this year, and the company may not have enough money to even make payments on interest alone.
Media have recently reported that the company might sell its 50 percent stake in an unlisted coal mine for $200 million. Bumi director Dileep Srivastava has refused to comment on that except saying that “we are committed to monetizing assets at a profit to settle debt.”
Last year, the company canceled its plan to sell a stake in Bumi Resources Minerals, its non-coal subsidiary, citing low valuation. In the past 12 months that stock has fallen 33 percent.
Parent company Bumi is planning on paying the remaining $1.3 billion of its debt to China Investment Corporation in the next two years to reduce its debt and interest expenses.
“We believe our first-half financials have been misread by the uninitiated aggravated by some mischievous reporting,” Srivastava said.
Meanwhile, big debt is also undermining investment in other Bakrie-related companies.
Ruben Sukatendel, who helps manage Rp 6 trillion in assets at BNI Asset Management, said that the large debt in the group is certainly a turn-off for him, especially long term.
“Bakrie group stocks are not in our investment choices for the long run except if the company can come up with a solution to settle their debts,” Ruben said.
“Maybe for short-term trading. Stocks in this group are already very cheap, and it could be the time to buy if you use a hit-and-run strategy,” he added, referring to a quick “buy low and sell high” trading method.
Among other listed stocks, Bakrie Telecom has lost 50 percent. Bakrie Telecom paid off its Rp 650 billion debt on Tuesday, the due date instead of the day before as the company promised earlier. The IDX had suspended trading on Bakrie Telecom’s stock for a day on Tuesday because of the delayed payment.
Energi Mega Persada, an oil company, dropped 51 percent, putting its estimated price-to-earnings ratio at 9.1, according to data on Bloomberg, which had no forecasts for Bakrie Telecom and Bumi Resources Minerals.
Shares of Bakrie & Brothers, the holding company for the companies listed on the IDX, has been trading at a low of Rp 50 since February.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 10 September 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/bumi-at-3-year-lows-but-stock-not-cheap-analysts/543377
Bumi Resources has fallen 22 percent in the past two weeks and traded last week at the lowest since March 2009. Before that the stock had been declining as its debt rating was lowered by Moody’s Investors Service and Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency. Both had cut Bumi’s rating on concern that its declining revenue from coal sales and increasing production cost will affect its ability to pay debt. Two weeks ago it posted a first-half net loss on higher operating costs
So far this year shares of Bumi, the biggest coal producer in Indonesia by volume, have lost 66 percent to close on Friday at Rp 730 per share, making it the second-biggest loser among 449 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) and underperforming the mining index’s 25 percent decline, according to Bloomberg data.
Being down so much this year may make the stock a bargain for some investors, but analysts warn that cheap valuation should not be the only consideration.
“I prefer to enter when Bumi hits below Rp 600 per share,” said Edwin Sebayan, head of research at MNC Securities in Jakarta. “We are still having a pessimistic view on the stock’s valuation with Rp 520 as the target price [this year],” he said.
Edwin set Rp 740 for Bumi as an optimistic price target. Bloomberg data show that Bumi’s estimated price-to-earnings ratio is 9.5 for this year. By comparison the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index has a multiple of 15.
Edwin said Bumi’s financial condition is still far from safe for investors to bet on the company. According to Edwin, with the $334 million net loss in the first half, compared to $227 million profit on the same period last year, its debt-to-equity ratio has risen, to 8.9.
The company’s cash position at $121.85 million is too small when the company, according to his calculation, has about Rp 3.1 trillion ($323 million) in principal payments on its debt maturing this year, and the company may not have enough money to even make payments on interest alone.
Media have recently reported that the company might sell its 50 percent stake in an unlisted coal mine for $200 million. Bumi director Dileep Srivastava has refused to comment on that except saying that “we are committed to monetizing assets at a profit to settle debt.”
Last year, the company canceled its plan to sell a stake in Bumi Resources Minerals, its non-coal subsidiary, citing low valuation. In the past 12 months that stock has fallen 33 percent.
Parent company Bumi is planning on paying the remaining $1.3 billion of its debt to China Investment Corporation in the next two years to reduce its debt and interest expenses.
“We believe our first-half financials have been misread by the uninitiated aggravated by some mischievous reporting,” Srivastava said.
Meanwhile, big debt is also undermining investment in other Bakrie-related companies.
Ruben Sukatendel, who helps manage Rp 6 trillion in assets at BNI Asset Management, said that the large debt in the group is certainly a turn-off for him, especially long term.
“Bakrie group stocks are not in our investment choices for the long run except if the company can come up with a solution to settle their debts,” Ruben said.
“Maybe for short-term trading. Stocks in this group are already very cheap, and it could be the time to buy if you use a hit-and-run strategy,” he added, referring to a quick “buy low and sell high” trading method.
Among other listed stocks, Bakrie Telecom has lost 50 percent. Bakrie Telecom paid off its Rp 650 billion debt on Tuesday, the due date instead of the day before as the company promised earlier. The IDX had suspended trading on Bakrie Telecom’s stock for a day on Tuesday because of the delayed payment.
Energi Mega Persada, an oil company, dropped 51 percent, putting its estimated price-to-earnings ratio at 9.1, according to data on Bloomberg, which had no forecasts for Bakrie Telecom and Bumi Resources Minerals.
Shares of Bakrie & Brothers, the holding company for the companies listed on the IDX, has been trading at a low of Rp 50 since February.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 10 September 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/bumi-at-3-year-lows-but-stock-not-cheap-analysts/543377
Indonesia Company Sukuk Shortage Curbs Returns: Islamic Finance
Indonesia’s three best-performing Islamic bond funds say a rebound in
corporate sukuk sales is failing to keep up with demand from investors
chasing higher returns as government yields decline.
Insight Investments Management’s top-ranked I-Hajj Syariah Fund wants to boost company holdings from 80 percent if more securities become available, President Director Tony Henri said in an interview in Jakarta last week. Akbar Syarief, fund manager at MNC Asset Management, overseeing the second-best performer, said his confidence in finding buyers is not matched by certainty there will be sufficient supply.
“Right now the concern is that when money comes in, there may not be securities to invest in,” Jakarta-based Syarief, whose MNC Dana Syariah vehicle returned 3.8 percent this year, said in a June 26 interview. “Corporate sukuk will always be in high demand.”
The yield on Indonesia’s Shariah-compliant rupiah bond due August 2018 fell 1.12 percentage points in the past year to 6.20 percent, compared with the 8.1 percent average return for Indonesia’s six sukuk funds over the same period. Bank Muamalat Indonesia lifted its June sale to Rp 800 billion ($85 million) from Rp 500 billion after investors sought 2.2 times the amount first offered, Finance Director Hendiarto said.
Corporate sales have reached Rp 1.5 trillion so far this year, compared with just Rp 200 billion for the whole of 2011. Etty Retno Wulandari, a Jakarta-based director at the Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency, said last month she expected 2012 offers to get to Rp 3 trillion. However, official data shows the 20 percent average growth in outstanding corporate sukuk over the past five years still trails the 40 percent expansion in Islamic banking assets.
‘Don’t actively trade’
“Our fund could be much bigger but Islamic bond issuance isn’t growing as fast as banking assets,” Insight’s Henri said. “We don’t actively trade the company sukuk because once we sell it, it is difficult to look for new products to invest in.”
Worldwide sales of bonds that comply with Islam’s ban on interest climbed to $21 billion in 2012 from $14 billion in the same period of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Offerings reached a record $36.7 billion last year.
Malaysia, the world’s largest sukuk market, has exempted investors from paying taxes on capital gains made on Shariah-compliant debt denominated in currencies other than the ringgit through 2014. Indonesia offers no similar incentive because it is committed to keeping Islamic products on an equal footing with non-Islamic securities, the Capital Market Agency’s Wulandari said last month.
Tax benefits
“There needs to be tax benefits for the Shariah-compliant capital market to grow,” Insight’s Henri said. “Issuing Islamic bonds requires more processing and there needs to be a pay-off to make them more or equally lucrative as conventional bonds.”
The I-Hajj Syariah fund returned 4 percent this year and 10.3 percent in 2011, the most among the six Indonesian sukuk vehicles tracked by Bloomberg, which advanced by an average of 3.1 percent in 2012 and 8.8 percent last year.
Assets held by Islamic bond and stock funds in Indonesia increased by an annual average of 96 percent over the last five years and account for 3 percent of the nation’s total managed funds, Capital Market Agency data show.
“We plan to launch more sukuk funds going forward, if there are products,” MNC Asset’s Syarief said, adding that he would like to increase his allocation for corporate notes to 70 percent from 50 percent. “Government Islamic bonds tend to be more volatile and yield lower, so we need to balance our fund with corporate notes.”
‘Bright outlook’
Global Shariah-compliant bonds returned 5.1 percent this year, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index, while debt in developing markets gained 7.8 percent, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index shows.
The average yield on Islamic bonds fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.44 percent on June 29, the lowest since August, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Sukuk index. The difference between the average yield and the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, narrowed three basis points to 240 basis points.
Corporate Islamic debt sales in Indonesia this year amount to just 2 percent of Malaysia’s 23.4 billion ringgit ($7.4 billion) of issuance in the same period, even though the former nation’s Muslim population is twelve times as big as its neighbors.
“Indonesia’s corporate sukuk market has a bright outlook,” Ruben Sukatendel, a Jakarta-based portfolio manager at BNI Asset Management, said in a June 27 interview.
“It is possible that Indonesia’s Islamic capital market may catch up to Malaysia’s if we see synergy between market players and regulators,” said Sukatendel, who oversees BNI Dana Syariah, the country’s debut sukuk fund and the third-best performing this year. Bloomberg
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 03 July 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/indonesia-company-sukuk-shortage-curbs-returns-islamic-finance/528341
Insight Investments Management’s top-ranked I-Hajj Syariah Fund wants to boost company holdings from 80 percent if more securities become available, President Director Tony Henri said in an interview in Jakarta last week. Akbar Syarief, fund manager at MNC Asset Management, overseeing the second-best performer, said his confidence in finding buyers is not matched by certainty there will be sufficient supply.
“Right now the concern is that when money comes in, there may not be securities to invest in,” Jakarta-based Syarief, whose MNC Dana Syariah vehicle returned 3.8 percent this year, said in a June 26 interview. “Corporate sukuk will always be in high demand.”
The yield on Indonesia’s Shariah-compliant rupiah bond due August 2018 fell 1.12 percentage points in the past year to 6.20 percent, compared with the 8.1 percent average return for Indonesia’s six sukuk funds over the same period. Bank Muamalat Indonesia lifted its June sale to Rp 800 billion ($85 million) from Rp 500 billion after investors sought 2.2 times the amount first offered, Finance Director Hendiarto said.
Corporate sales have reached Rp 1.5 trillion so far this year, compared with just Rp 200 billion for the whole of 2011. Etty Retno Wulandari, a Jakarta-based director at the Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency, said last month she expected 2012 offers to get to Rp 3 trillion. However, official data shows the 20 percent average growth in outstanding corporate sukuk over the past five years still trails the 40 percent expansion in Islamic banking assets.
‘Don’t actively trade’
“Our fund could be much bigger but Islamic bond issuance isn’t growing as fast as banking assets,” Insight’s Henri said. “We don’t actively trade the company sukuk because once we sell it, it is difficult to look for new products to invest in.”
Worldwide sales of bonds that comply with Islam’s ban on interest climbed to $21 billion in 2012 from $14 billion in the same period of 2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Offerings reached a record $36.7 billion last year.
Malaysia, the world’s largest sukuk market, has exempted investors from paying taxes on capital gains made on Shariah-compliant debt denominated in currencies other than the ringgit through 2014. Indonesia offers no similar incentive because it is committed to keeping Islamic products on an equal footing with non-Islamic securities, the Capital Market Agency’s Wulandari said last month.
Tax benefits
“There needs to be tax benefits for the Shariah-compliant capital market to grow,” Insight’s Henri said. “Issuing Islamic bonds requires more processing and there needs to be a pay-off to make them more or equally lucrative as conventional bonds.”
The I-Hajj Syariah fund returned 4 percent this year and 10.3 percent in 2011, the most among the six Indonesian sukuk vehicles tracked by Bloomberg, which advanced by an average of 3.1 percent in 2012 and 8.8 percent last year.
Assets held by Islamic bond and stock funds in Indonesia increased by an annual average of 96 percent over the last five years and account for 3 percent of the nation’s total managed funds, Capital Market Agency data show.
“We plan to launch more sukuk funds going forward, if there are products,” MNC Asset’s Syarief said, adding that he would like to increase his allocation for corporate notes to 70 percent from 50 percent. “Government Islamic bonds tend to be more volatile and yield lower, so we need to balance our fund with corporate notes.”
‘Bright outlook’
Global Shariah-compliant bonds returned 5.1 percent this year, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index, while debt in developing markets gained 7.8 percent, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index shows.
The average yield on Islamic bonds fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 3.44 percent on June 29, the lowest since August, according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Sukuk index. The difference between the average yield and the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, narrowed three basis points to 240 basis points.
Corporate Islamic debt sales in Indonesia this year amount to just 2 percent of Malaysia’s 23.4 billion ringgit ($7.4 billion) of issuance in the same period, even though the former nation’s Muslim population is twelve times as big as its neighbors.
“Indonesia’s corporate sukuk market has a bright outlook,” Ruben Sukatendel, a Jakarta-based portfolio manager at BNI Asset Management, said in a June 27 interview.
“It is possible that Indonesia’s Islamic capital market may catch up to Malaysia’s if we see synergy between market players and regulators,” said Sukatendel, who oversees BNI Dana Syariah, the country’s debut sukuk fund and the third-best performing this year. Bloomberg
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 03 July 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/indonesia-company-sukuk-shortage-curbs-returns-islamic-finance/528341
Despite Recent Slide, JCI Still a Buyer’s Market: Analysts
Indonesia’s main stock index posted its biggest decline in almost seven
months on Friday amid concerns about slowing economic growth in China
and Europe, but some investors say the recent tumble represents a buying
opportunity.
“It is actually the time to buy,” Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, said on Friday. “The problem is not in Indonesia. Regional markets are concerned about China’s growth, increasing the possibility that we will see a big slowdown.”
The Jakarta Composite Index on Friday fell 2.1 percent, its largest drop since Nov. 1. It has lost 7.6 percent since May 3, when it closed at a record high of 4,224. For the year, the index is up 2.1 percent.
Valuation in the market is comparable to those of other benchmarks across the region. The JCI’s price-to-estimated-earnings ratio is 13.3, compared to 15.1 for the Philippine Stock Exchange Index and 12.8 for the Straits Times Index in Singapore, according to Bloomberg data.
Friday’s plunge has also made some stocks attractive relative to their profit potential.
United Tractors, a unit of Astra International that sells heavy-equipment vehicles, trades at 12.9 times this year’s estimated earnings, Bloomberg data show. The company had net income of Rp 5.9 trillion ($637 million) in 2011, and profit is projected to rise to Rp 6.82 trillion this year and to Rp 8.18 trillion in 2013, Bloomberg data show. Its stock dropped 5.4 percent on Friday, bringing its decline this year to 9.3 percent.
Shares of Semen Gresik, the nation’s biggest cement maker that stands to benefit from planned infrastructure projects, fell 3.5 percent on Friday, putting its price-to-estimated-earnings ratio at 14.3.
Domestic household spending accounts for about 60 percent of Indonesia’s economic activity, which will help to cushion against global financial shocks should demand for the nation’s exports plunge.
The government has forecast economic growth at 6.5 percent this year, accelerating to a range of 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent in 2013. Its 6.5 percent expansion last year was the fastest since 1996.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 29 Mei 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/despite-recent-slide-jci-still-a-buyers-market-analysts/520447
“It is actually the time to buy,” Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, said on Friday. “The problem is not in Indonesia. Regional markets are concerned about China’s growth, increasing the possibility that we will see a big slowdown.”
The Jakarta Composite Index on Friday fell 2.1 percent, its largest drop since Nov. 1. It has lost 7.6 percent since May 3, when it closed at a record high of 4,224. For the year, the index is up 2.1 percent.
Valuation in the market is comparable to those of other benchmarks across the region. The JCI’s price-to-estimated-earnings ratio is 13.3, compared to 15.1 for the Philippine Stock Exchange Index and 12.8 for the Straits Times Index in Singapore, according to Bloomberg data.
Friday’s plunge has also made some stocks attractive relative to their profit potential.
United Tractors, a unit of Astra International that sells heavy-equipment vehicles, trades at 12.9 times this year’s estimated earnings, Bloomberg data show. The company had net income of Rp 5.9 trillion ($637 million) in 2011, and profit is projected to rise to Rp 6.82 trillion this year and to Rp 8.18 trillion in 2013, Bloomberg data show. Its stock dropped 5.4 percent on Friday, bringing its decline this year to 9.3 percent.
Shares of Semen Gresik, the nation’s biggest cement maker that stands to benefit from planned infrastructure projects, fell 3.5 percent on Friday, putting its price-to-estimated-earnings ratio at 14.3.
Domestic household spending accounts for about 60 percent of Indonesia’s economic activity, which will help to cushion against global financial shocks should demand for the nation’s exports plunge.
The government has forecast economic growth at 6.5 percent this year, accelerating to a range of 6.8 percent to 7.2 percent in 2013. Its 6.5 percent expansion last year was the fastest since 1996.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 29 Mei 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/despite-recent-slide-jci-still-a-buyers-market-analysts/520447
Selasa, 22 Januari 2013
Fund Managers Betting on Indonesian Stocks to Outperform Bonds
Fund managers say they are likely to reduce their holdings in Indonesian
bonds after last year’s strong gains and plan to raise their stakes in
equities on expectations that corporate profits will increase further
this year.
“Yields in fixed-income assets will narrow. Fund managers might move some of their funds to the equity market to look for more profitability,” said Ruben Sukatendel, an investment manager at BNI Asset Management, which oversees Rp 5 trillion ($556 million) in funds.
“Looking forward, fund managers might go 50-50 between the equity market and bond market,” he said. “Of course, it will be adjusted from time to time, depending on the market movement or when our market valuation is already too high, but it will not be far from 50-50.”
Bonds, especially government securities with longer-term maturities, gained in 2011 as international investors sought better returns than equities and other fixed-income assets.
Indonesia got a boost late last year when Fitch Ratings raised its rating on the country’s debt to investment level for the first time since 1997.
Moody’s Investors Service last week followed Fitch’s move, strengthening Indonesia’s position as a favorite among overseas investors for emerging-market debt amid the euro zone debt crisis that threatens to curtail global economic growth.
ETrading Securities said in a recent research report that the country’s declining risk as a consequence of upgrades on sovereign debt is likely to bring down borrowing costs for Indonesian companies, and that will lead to higher corporate profits.
In the corporate bond market just a few years ago, bonds with five-year maturities had yields of around 9 percent, data from the Debt Management Office at the Finance Ministry showed. Now, five-year bonds yield 8-9 percent, Ruben said, and with yields likely to decline further the bond market will become less attractive in terms of profitability.
Adira Dinamika Multi Finance, one of the nation’s largest financing companies, has Rp 238 billion in bonds that mature this October and yield 8.35 percent, which is higher than the 3.6 percent yield for comparable 1-year government bonds.
Dividends also make stocks an attractive investment. Adira’s stock has a 7.89 percent dividend yield, based on last year’s payout and its latest share price. Adira’s stock has risen 3.3 percent this month, extending last year’s 5.8 percent advance.
Still, the equity market faces risks at the moment, Ruben said.
“The concern is still about the European and US economies. The US economy is still very slow in recovering, while the euro zone debt crisis is still unclear on its solution,” Ruben said.
Bonny Iriawan, a director at Schroders Indonesia with Rp 62 trillion in assets under management, said that investors will be selective in bonds but the overall long-term prospects in the fixed-income market remain positive.
“For long-term investing like pension fund investors, it is still very positive. They will have to invest, and with Indonesia’s investment grade status, it will be very prospective,” Bonny said.
The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index has gained 4.5 percent this year and is 5 percent from its all-time closing high of 4,193.44 set on Aug. 1. Last year, the stock measure closed up 3.2 percent.
Bonny and Ruben believe that fixed-income assets will continue to be held by investors, in a nation in which fixed income is a bigger market than stocks. Bonds tend to be less risky than equities and longer maturities offer a more attractive return than savings rates. By comparison, commercial banks on average offer one-year deposit rates at 6.94 percent, according to Bank Indonesia data.
“We have to remember that Indonesian investors are typically conservative and moderate in taking risk. So demand for fixed-income market will still be strong,” Ruben said.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 24 Januari 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/fund-managers-betting-on-indonesian-stocks-to-outperform-bonds/493371
“Yields in fixed-income assets will narrow. Fund managers might move some of their funds to the equity market to look for more profitability,” said Ruben Sukatendel, an investment manager at BNI Asset Management, which oversees Rp 5 trillion ($556 million) in funds.
“Looking forward, fund managers might go 50-50 between the equity market and bond market,” he said. “Of course, it will be adjusted from time to time, depending on the market movement or when our market valuation is already too high, but it will not be far from 50-50.”
Bonds, especially government securities with longer-term maturities, gained in 2011 as international investors sought better returns than equities and other fixed-income assets.
Indonesia got a boost late last year when Fitch Ratings raised its rating on the country’s debt to investment level for the first time since 1997.
Moody’s Investors Service last week followed Fitch’s move, strengthening Indonesia’s position as a favorite among overseas investors for emerging-market debt amid the euro zone debt crisis that threatens to curtail global economic growth.
ETrading Securities said in a recent research report that the country’s declining risk as a consequence of upgrades on sovereign debt is likely to bring down borrowing costs for Indonesian companies, and that will lead to higher corporate profits.
In the corporate bond market just a few years ago, bonds with five-year maturities had yields of around 9 percent, data from the Debt Management Office at the Finance Ministry showed. Now, five-year bonds yield 8-9 percent, Ruben said, and with yields likely to decline further the bond market will become less attractive in terms of profitability.
Adira Dinamika Multi Finance, one of the nation’s largest financing companies, has Rp 238 billion in bonds that mature this October and yield 8.35 percent, which is higher than the 3.6 percent yield for comparable 1-year government bonds.
Dividends also make stocks an attractive investment. Adira’s stock has a 7.89 percent dividend yield, based on last year’s payout and its latest share price. Adira’s stock has risen 3.3 percent this month, extending last year’s 5.8 percent advance.
Still, the equity market faces risks at the moment, Ruben said.
“The concern is still about the European and US economies. The US economy is still very slow in recovering, while the euro zone debt crisis is still unclear on its solution,” Ruben said.
Bonny Iriawan, a director at Schroders Indonesia with Rp 62 trillion in assets under management, said that investors will be selective in bonds but the overall long-term prospects in the fixed-income market remain positive.
“For long-term investing like pension fund investors, it is still very positive. They will have to invest, and with Indonesia’s investment grade status, it will be very prospective,” Bonny said.
The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index has gained 4.5 percent this year and is 5 percent from its all-time closing high of 4,193.44 set on Aug. 1. Last year, the stock measure closed up 3.2 percent.
Bonny and Ruben believe that fixed-income assets will continue to be held by investors, in a nation in which fixed income is a bigger market than stocks. Bonds tend to be less risky than equities and longer maturities offer a more attractive return than savings rates. By comparison, commercial banks on average offer one-year deposit rates at 6.94 percent, according to Bank Indonesia data.
“We have to remember that Indonesian investors are typically conservative and moderate in taking risk. So demand for fixed-income market will still be strong,” Ruben said.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 24 Januari 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/fund-managers-betting-on-indonesian-stocks-to-outperform-bonds/493371
Strong Showing Likely As Trading Resumes
When trading resumes on Monday after the week-long Idul Fitri holiday,
Indonesia’s stock market is expected to open higher, supported by stable
regional financial markets and slow inflation, analysts in Jakarta
said.
“Regional markets were up by an average of 2.5 percent this week, so there is a good chance that the Jakarta Composite Index is set to open higher on Monday,” said Edwin Sebayang, head of research at the Jakarta-based MNC Securities.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 1.8 percent on Friday but was up 3.2 percent for the week. The Nikkei 225 average in Japan dropped 1.2 for the day but had gained 1.7 percent in five days.
The JCI closed down 0.1 percent at 3,841.73 on Aug. 26, the latest day of trading and was little changed for the week.
Investors were monitoring the latest US employment report for signs of the state of the nation’s economy.
The government reported that in August, the unemployment rate was steady at 9.1 percent, suggesting that the US economy was at risk of slipping back into recession. Still, non-farm payrolls were unchanged in August after an 85,000 jobs gain in July.
The Dow Jones industrial average opened down 1.2 percent on Friday after rising 1.9 percent at the start of the week to Thursday.
Edwin said that global markets are starting to stabilize as US economic data showed the country was not stumbling into a recession.
“Economic indicators show that the US is actually far from recession, the economy was just slowing down,” he said.
He pointed to manufacturing activity, with the sector’s ISM index dipping to 50.6 in August compared to 50.9 in July — significantly higher than the consensus expectation of 48.5.
On Thursday, US weekly jobless claims were 409,000, slightly l ower than forecast of 410,000.
Edwin said that the market was also anticipating more stimulus from the Federal Reserve to spur the US economy.
The Fed was discussing a more aggressive rate policy to stimulate economic growth as well as a policy “linking rates to path of jobless rate,” Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Harry Su, head of research at state brokerage firm Bahana Securities, said the Indonesian market would take its cue from Asian markets’ openings on Monday morning. He was optimistic that this week’s positive sentiment would last through next week.
“Despite today’s [Friday] lackluster performance, regional markets were still positive for the week, and I think the Indonesian market should rise in tandem,” Harry said.
He added that he expected investors to see Indonesia, with its strong macroeconomy and limited reliance on exports, as a safe haven should the external volatility continue.
He recommended investors buy shares in domestic-oriented stocks such as banks, consumer goods and property developers.
The market is also anticipating Monday’s release by the Central Statistics Agency’s (BPS) of inflation data for August. The median estimate of five economists surveyed by the Jakarta Globe showed the consumer price index rising 4.74 percent.
In July, the inflation rate was 4.61 percent, with the month-on-month rate at 0.67 percent.
“Inflation doesn’t seem to be a threat because the month-on-month inflation is predicted to be between 0.75 percent and 1 percent,” Edwin said, “So, it is within the anticipated range.”
Still, markets remain volatile, some analysts said, because of uncertainty in the long term over the pace of global economic growth.
Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, said there was potential for the JCI to open lower because of continuing concern over the financial crisis in Europe the slowdown in US growth.
“My clients are steered into mixed portfolios and we are also advising them to invest in bonds,” he said. “Index and stocks valuations are rather high already.”
BNI Asset Management manages more than Rp 5 trillion ($585 million) in as sets.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 02 September 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/strong-showing-likely-as-trading-resumes/463089
“Regional markets were up by an average of 2.5 percent this week, so there is a good chance that the Jakarta Composite Index is set to open higher on Monday,” said Edwin Sebayang, head of research at the Jakarta-based MNC Securities.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 1.8 percent on Friday but was up 3.2 percent for the week. The Nikkei 225 average in Japan dropped 1.2 for the day but had gained 1.7 percent in five days.
The JCI closed down 0.1 percent at 3,841.73 on Aug. 26, the latest day of trading and was little changed for the week.
Investors were monitoring the latest US employment report for signs of the state of the nation’s economy.
The government reported that in August, the unemployment rate was steady at 9.1 percent, suggesting that the US economy was at risk of slipping back into recession. Still, non-farm payrolls were unchanged in August after an 85,000 jobs gain in July.
The Dow Jones industrial average opened down 1.2 percent on Friday after rising 1.9 percent at the start of the week to Thursday.
Edwin said that global markets are starting to stabilize as US economic data showed the country was not stumbling into a recession.
“Economic indicators show that the US is actually far from recession, the economy was just slowing down,” he said.
He pointed to manufacturing activity, with the sector’s ISM index dipping to 50.6 in August compared to 50.9 in July — significantly higher than the consensus expectation of 48.5.
On Thursday, US weekly jobless claims were 409,000, slightly l ower than forecast of 410,000.
Edwin said that the market was also anticipating more stimulus from the Federal Reserve to spur the US economy.
The Fed was discussing a more aggressive rate policy to stimulate economic growth as well as a policy “linking rates to path of jobless rate,” Reuters reported on Wednesday.
Harry Su, head of research at state brokerage firm Bahana Securities, said the Indonesian market would take its cue from Asian markets’ openings on Monday morning. He was optimistic that this week’s positive sentiment would last through next week.
“Despite today’s [Friday] lackluster performance, regional markets were still positive for the week, and I think the Indonesian market should rise in tandem,” Harry said.
He added that he expected investors to see Indonesia, with its strong macroeconomy and limited reliance on exports, as a safe haven should the external volatility continue.
He recommended investors buy shares in domestic-oriented stocks such as banks, consumer goods and property developers.
The market is also anticipating Monday’s release by the Central Statistics Agency’s (BPS) of inflation data for August. The median estimate of five economists surveyed by the Jakarta Globe showed the consumer price index rising 4.74 percent.
In July, the inflation rate was 4.61 percent, with the month-on-month rate at 0.67 percent.
“Inflation doesn’t seem to be a threat because the month-on-month inflation is predicted to be between 0.75 percent and 1 percent,” Edwin said, “So, it is within the anticipated range.”
Still, markets remain volatile, some analysts said, because of uncertainty in the long term over the pace of global economic growth.
Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, said there was potential for the JCI to open lower because of continuing concern over the financial crisis in Europe the slowdown in US growth.
“My clients are steered into mixed portfolios and we are also advising them to invest in bonds,” he said. “Index and stocks valuations are rather high already.”
BNI Asset Management manages more than Rp 5 trillion ($585 million) in as sets.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 02 September 2012
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/strong-showing-likely-as-trading-resumes/463089
Analysts: Indonesia Fundamentals Good But Beware World Market Volatility
Investors should refrain from making big bets on Indonesia’s stock
market anytime soon because of recent volatility and concerns that the
United States and Europe will force a global economic slowdown, analysts
and fund managers say.
“My advice is not to enter the market in the next one or two days. It is still very volatile. It could go up tomorrow but fall the next day,” said Adrian Rusmana, research director at Sucorinvest Central Gani.
Concerns that the financial crisis may have spread to Spain and Italy combined with news of the US credit rating downgrade continued to shake the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Monday, following Friday’s big decline.
On Monday the Jakarta Composite Index fell as much as 5.3 percent, before paring its loss to 1.8 percent. Just a week ago, the benchmark had closed at a record high.
Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, is confident that there was still upside potential in Indonesia’s market, but he would not recommend entering the market immediately.
“We keep monitoring the market, but we are still in ‘wait-and-see’ mode,” he said. Fund managers are likely to keep their assets in cash before entering the market when the time is right, he said.
“Bond prices are still relatively expensive in Indonesia, and the market is not liquid. We don’t want our money to be bound up in the bond market and miss any momentum in the equity market,” said Ruben, who helps manage Rp 5 trillion in assets.
Ruben said BNI Asset Management is planning to buy into the equity market by the end of the week as prices look cheap. It could use 20 percent to 30 percent of its idle cash to buy stocks, he said.
Investors may get some guidance today, when Bank Indonesia meets for its monthly policy meeting.
Strong corporate profit, economic growth and stable interest rates are fundamental factors that may help to keep share prices from declining further.
The central bank is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged, according to seven economists polled by the Jakarta Globe. It last tightened monetary policy back in February.
Bagus Hananto, head researcher at Onix Capital, said there are still opportunities to gain in Indonesia, especially with its stable economy as a support.
Kim Eng Securities Indonesia shared a similar view in its note to its clients on Monday, saying that despite “temporary turbulence”, the index is likely to rebound.
“For those with an investment horizon of over six months, we think there is opportunity for bottom fishing in the Indonesian market,” it said. “The country continues to show strong fundamentals and it is not too dependent on exports, making it relatively shielded from any global economy slowdown.”
The broker said that consumer goods, banking and the property sector remain attractive and warned against commodity and export-oriented stocks.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 08 Agustus 2011
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/analysts-indonesia-fundamentals-good-but-beware-world-market-volatility/458033
“My advice is not to enter the market in the next one or two days. It is still very volatile. It could go up tomorrow but fall the next day,” said Adrian Rusmana, research director at Sucorinvest Central Gani.
Concerns that the financial crisis may have spread to Spain and Italy combined with news of the US credit rating downgrade continued to shake the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Monday, following Friday’s big decline.
On Monday the Jakarta Composite Index fell as much as 5.3 percent, before paring its loss to 1.8 percent. Just a week ago, the benchmark had closed at a record high.
Ruben Sukatendel, a fund manager at BNI Asset Management, is confident that there was still upside potential in Indonesia’s market, but he would not recommend entering the market immediately.
“We keep monitoring the market, but we are still in ‘wait-and-see’ mode,” he said. Fund managers are likely to keep their assets in cash before entering the market when the time is right, he said.
“Bond prices are still relatively expensive in Indonesia, and the market is not liquid. We don’t want our money to be bound up in the bond market and miss any momentum in the equity market,” said Ruben, who helps manage Rp 5 trillion in assets.
Ruben said BNI Asset Management is planning to buy into the equity market by the end of the week as prices look cheap. It could use 20 percent to 30 percent of its idle cash to buy stocks, he said.
Investors may get some guidance today, when Bank Indonesia meets for its monthly policy meeting.
Strong corporate profit, economic growth and stable interest rates are fundamental factors that may help to keep share prices from declining further.
The central bank is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged, according to seven economists polled by the Jakarta Globe. It last tightened monetary policy back in February.
Bagus Hananto, head researcher at Onix Capital, said there are still opportunities to gain in Indonesia, especially with its stable economy as a support.
Kim Eng Securities Indonesia shared a similar view in its note to its clients on Monday, saying that despite “temporary turbulence”, the index is likely to rebound.
“For those with an investment horizon of over six months, we think there is opportunity for bottom fishing in the Indonesian market,” it said. “The country continues to show strong fundamentals and it is not too dependent on exports, making it relatively shielded from any global economy slowdown.”
The broker said that consumer goods, banking and the property sector remain attractive and warned against commodity and export-oriented stocks.
Source :
Jakarta Globe, 08 Agustus 2011
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/business/analysts-indonesia-fundamentals-good-but-beware-world-market-volatility/458033
Indonesia Company Sukuk Shortage Curbs Returns
JAKARTA,
Indonesia’s three best-performing Islamic bond funds say a
rebound in corporate sukuk sales is failing to keep up with demand from
investors chasing higher returns as government yields decline.
PT Insight Investments Management’s top-ranked I-Hajj Syariah Fund
wants to boost company holdings from 80% if more securities become
available, President Director Tony Henri said in an interview in Jakarta
last week. Akbar Syarief, fund manager at PT MNC Asset Management,
overseeing the second-best performer, said his confidence in finding
buyers is not matched by certainty there will be sufficient supply.
“Right now the concern is that when money comes in, there may not be
securities to invest in,” Jakarta-based Syarief, whose MNC Dana Syariah
vehicle returned 3.7% this year, said in a June 26 interview. “Corporate
sukuk will always be in high demand.”
The yield on Indonesia’s Shariah-compliant rupiah bond due August 2018
fell 1.11 percentage points in the past year to 6.20%, compared with the
8% average return for Indonesia’s six sukuk funds over the same period.
PT Bank Muamalat Indonesia lifted its June sale to 800 billion rupiah
($85 million) from 500 billion rupiah after investors sought 2.2 times
the amount first offered, Finance Director Hendiarto said.
Corporate sales have reached 1.5 trillion rupiah so far this year,
compared with just 200 billion rupiah for the whole of 2011. Etty Retno
Wulandari, a Jakarta-based director at the Capital Market and Financial
Institution Supervisory Agency, said last month she expected 2012 offers
to get to 3 trillion rupiah. However, official data shows the 20%
average growth in outstanding corporate sukuk over the past five years
still trails the 40% expansion in Islamic banking assets.
‘Don’t Actively Trade’
“Our fund could be much bigger but Islamic bond issuance isn’t growing
as fast as banking assets,” Insight’s Henri said. “We don’t actively
trade the company sukuk because once we sell it, it is difficult to look
for new products to invest in.”
Worldwide sales of bonds that comply with Islam’s ban on interest
climbed to $21 billion in 2012 from $14 billion in the same period of
2011, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Offerings reached a
record $36.7 billion last year.
Malaysia, the world’s largest sukuk market, has exempted investors from
paying taxes on capital gains made on Shariah- compliant debt
denominated in currencies other than the ringgit through 2014. Indonesia
offers no similar incentive because it is committed to keeping Islamic
products on an equal footing with non-Islamic securities, the Capital
Market Agency’s Wulandari said last month.
Tax Benefits
“There needs to be tax benefits for the Shariah-compliant capital
market to grow,” Insight’s Henri said. “Issuing Islamic bonds requires
more processing and there needs to be a pay-off to make them more or
equally lucrative as conventional bonds.”
The I-Hajj Syariah fund returned 4% this year and 10.3% in 2011, the
most among the six Indonesian sukuk vehicles tracked by Bloomberg, which
advanced by an average of 3.1% in 2012 and 8.8% last year.
Assets held by Islamic bond and stock funds in Indonesia increased by
an annual average of 96% over the last five years and account for 3% of
the nation’s total managed funds, Capital Market Agency data show.
“We plan to launch more sukuk funds going forward, if there are
products,” MNC Asset’s Syarief said, adding that he would like to
increase his allocation for corporate notes to 70% from 50%. “Government
Islamic bonds tend to be more volatile and yield lower, so we need to
balance our fund with corporate notes.”
‘Bright Outlook’
Global Shariah-compliant bonds returned 5.1% this year, according to
the HSBC/NASDAQ Dubai US Dollar Sukuk Index, while debt in developing
markets gained 7.5%, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMBI Global Index shows.
The average yield on Islamic bonds fell one basis point, or 0.01
percentage point, to 3.44% on June 29, the lowest since August,
according to the HSBC/NASDAQ Sukuk index. The difference between the
average yield and the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, narrowed
three basis points to 240 basis points.
Corporate Islamic debt sales in Indonesia this year amount to just 2%
of Malaysia’s 23.4 billion ringgit (US$7.4 billion) of issuance in the
same period, even though the former nation’s Muslim population is twelve
times as big as its neighbors.
“Indonesia’s corporate sukuk market has a bright outlook,” Ruben Sukatendel, a Jakarta-based portfolio manager at BNI Asset Management, said in a June 27 interview. “It is possible that
Indonesia’s Islamic capital market may catch up to Malaysia’s if we see
synergy between market players and regulators,” said Sukatendel, who
oversees BNI Dana Syariah, the country’s debut sukuk fund and the
third-best performing this year. (Bloomberg/aph)
Source :
Bisnis Indonesia, 03 Juli 2012
Bakrie stocks price rises 8.12% amid US$600 million debt settlement issue
JAKARTA,
Stock price of 10 companies affiliated to Bakrie Group rose by 8.12% in average prompted by Indonesia shares’ jump.
Based on Bloomberg’s data, PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk booked the largest jump by 21.71% to IDR157, tailed by coal contractor PT Darma Henwa whose stock was up by 12.33% to IDR82.
PT Bakrieland Development increased by 11.21% to IDR119 per share while PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk climbed by 9.09% to IDR300.
In the meantime, the stock price of the largest coal exporter PT Bumi Resources Tbk ascended by 8.59% to IDR2,150 per share, triggered by the certainty over Bumi’s US$600 million debt settlement to China Investment Corporation this month.
The agreed export coal price of US$133 per ton also became another driver of such stock price jump.
However, the rise of Bumi and Berau Coal Energy which rose by 2.27% to IDR450 only resulted to 2.35% jump of Bumi Plc in London Exchage.
Entire stocks of Bakrie Group rose after it had oversold, said Head Research at PT Sinarmas Sekuritas Jeffrosenberg Tan.
“It is a technical rebound and relatively fair given the fact that all Bakrie Group’s stakes faced oversold. Bakrie Group’s stocks were also lagging compared to the rise of other companies,” he said.
Investment manager at PT BNI Asset Management Ruben Sukatendel added that the rise was prompted by JCI’s rally in the past three days.
According to him, market players perceived Bakrie Group’s stocks as relatively cheap particularly Bumi Resources.
“Investors see the fair price of Bumi resources at IDR3,000,” he said yesterday.
Bumi’s debt
This jump also proved that market is not much bothered by Bumi Resources’s debt settlement issue.
For the remaining Bakrie Group’s stocks, Ruben perceived benchmark price as made by investors as still high thus the rise of seven stock prices under Bakrie Group as are still fair.
Regarding Bumi Plc, Glencore International Plc and other potential buyers such as Texas Pacific Group and Vitol are reportedly negotiating with Bakrie Group.
This relates to the plan to settle US$1.34 billion debt to Creditu Suisse maturing in March 2012.
The loan is pledged by Bumi Plc at 8.5 pound sterling. The problem is the current price of Bumi plc is 7.4 pound sterling, below the minimum price when the stake is pledged.
In a brief of PT Mandiri Sekuritas, it was still unclear whether Bakrie is willing to lose its most precious aset. Bakrie is currently having 30% voting right in Bumi Plc. (T02/msw)
Source :
Bisnis Indonesia, 13 Oktober 2011
http://www.bisnis.com/articles/bakrie-stocks-price-rises-8-dot-12-percent-amid-us$600-million-debt-settlement-issue
Stock price of 10 companies affiliated to Bakrie Group rose by 8.12% in average prompted by Indonesia shares’ jump.
Based on Bloomberg’s data, PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk booked the largest jump by 21.71% to IDR157, tailed by coal contractor PT Darma Henwa whose stock was up by 12.33% to IDR82.
PT Bakrieland Development increased by 11.21% to IDR119 per share while PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk climbed by 9.09% to IDR300.
In the meantime, the stock price of the largest coal exporter PT Bumi Resources Tbk ascended by 8.59% to IDR2,150 per share, triggered by the certainty over Bumi’s US$600 million debt settlement to China Investment Corporation this month.
The agreed export coal price of US$133 per ton also became another driver of such stock price jump.
However, the rise of Bumi and Berau Coal Energy which rose by 2.27% to IDR450 only resulted to 2.35% jump of Bumi Plc in London Exchage.
Entire stocks of Bakrie Group rose after it had oversold, said Head Research at PT Sinarmas Sekuritas Jeffrosenberg Tan.
“It is a technical rebound and relatively fair given the fact that all Bakrie Group’s stakes faced oversold. Bakrie Group’s stocks were also lagging compared to the rise of other companies,” he said.
Investment manager at PT BNI Asset Management Ruben Sukatendel added that the rise was prompted by JCI’s rally in the past three days.
According to him, market players perceived Bakrie Group’s stocks as relatively cheap particularly Bumi Resources.
“Investors see the fair price of Bumi resources at IDR3,000,” he said yesterday.
Bumi’s debt
This jump also proved that market is not much bothered by Bumi Resources’s debt settlement issue.
For the remaining Bakrie Group’s stocks, Ruben perceived benchmark price as made by investors as still high thus the rise of seven stock prices under Bakrie Group as are still fair.
Regarding Bumi Plc, Glencore International Plc and other potential buyers such as Texas Pacific Group and Vitol are reportedly negotiating with Bakrie Group.
This relates to the plan to settle US$1.34 billion debt to Creditu Suisse maturing in March 2012.
The loan is pledged by Bumi Plc at 8.5 pound sterling. The problem is the current price of Bumi plc is 7.4 pound sterling, below the minimum price when the stake is pledged.
In a brief of PT Mandiri Sekuritas, it was still unclear whether Bakrie is willing to lose its most precious aset. Bakrie is currently having 30% voting right in Bumi Plc. (T02/msw)
Source :
Bisnis Indonesia, 13 Oktober 2011
http://www.bisnis.com/articles/bakrie-stocks-price-rises-8-dot-12-percent-amid-us$600-million-debt-settlement-issue
Investor masih haus sentimen positif
JAKARTA: Pelaku pasar modal menilai penguatan indeks saham tiga hari
terakhir disebabkan hausnya sentimen positif baik dari pasar modal
global maupun lokal.
Fund Manager PT BNI Asset Management Ruben Sukatendel menilai penguatan
indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) sejak awal pekan ini merupakan
tanda-tanda hausnya pelaku pasar terhadap sentimen positif.
"Ada tiga faktor, yang pertama haus sentimen positif, dan kedua ada faktor euforia juga," ujarnya kepada Bisnis sore ini.
Dia mengatakan faktor haus sentimen itu terlihat dari dampak positif
pernyataan Jerman dan Perancis yang menjanjikan resolusi penyelesaian
krisis pada awal November. Adapun faktor ketiga, lanjutnya, adalah
keberanian pemerintah menurunkan BI Rate dari semula 6,75% menjadi 6,5%.
Penurunan itu, tuturnya, menunjukkan inflasi di dalam negeri masih
terkendali. Ruben mengatkaan inflasi itu semakin memantapkan posisi
fundamental ekonomi Indonesia sehingga dipandang semakin kuat, dan
memompa sentimen positif pasar saham.
Menurut dia, salah satu kelompok usaha yang penguatan harga sahamnya
paling menarik perhatian adalah Grup Bakrie. Dia menilai peningkatan
harga saham kelompok usaha keluarga itu didongkrak oleh penguatan indeks
saham selama 3 hari terakhir.
Menurut dia, saat ini pelaku pasar juga menilai harga saham kelompok
usaha itu masih sangat murah, terutama saham PT Bumi Resources Tbk yang
berkode BUMI. "Pasar melihat harga wajar Bumi Resources di kisaran
Rp3.000, jadi ketika koreksi membawa harganya turun sampai di bawah
Rp2.000, sentimen positif jadi alasan membeli lagi saham itu hingga
menguat seperti hari ini.
Menurut dia, harga saham perusahaan yang terapresiasi juga menunjukkan
sentimen negatif masalah pembayaran utang Bumi Resources tidak terlalu
dihiraukan oleh pelaku pasar. Dia menilai peningkatan harga saham Bumi
Resources merupakan yang paling mencolok hari ini dibandingkan dengan
perusahaan satu grup lainnya.
Terkait saham Grup Bakrie lain, Ruben juga berpendapat harga acuan dari
investor juga masih cukup tinggi sehingga peningkatan harga pada saham
tujuh saham grup itu masih wajar.
Data perdagangan menunjukkan saham Bumi Resources terapresiasi Rp170
atau 8,59% ke Rp2.150, PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk sebesar Rp2 atau
3,85% ke Rp54, dan PT Bakrieland Development Tbk naik Rp12 atau 11,21%
ke Rp119.
Saham lain adalah PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk Rp28 atau 21,71% ke Rp157,
PT Berau Energy Tbk Rp10 atau 2,27% ke Rp450, dan PT Bakrie Sumatera
Plantations Tbk Rp25 atau 9,09% ke Rp300. Perusahaan lain adalah PT
Darma Henwa Tbk yang menguat Rp9 atau 12,33% ke Rp82 dan PT Bumi
Resources Minerals Tbk naik sebesar Rp20 atau 3,39% ke Rp610.(mmh)
Sumber :
Bisnis Indonesia, 12 Oktober 2011
http://www.bisnis.com/articles/investor-masih-haus-sentimen-positif
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